Analysis of voltage profile to determine energy demand using Monte Carlo algorithms and Markov Chains (MCMC)

Edwin M. García, Alexander Águila, Idi Isaac, Jorge W. González, Gabriel López

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

11 Scopus citations

Abstract

At present, energy distribution companies seek to improve service and implement alternatives to determine the capability of distribution system devices that allow to cover electric demand. This paper proposes a stochastic analysis to manage the demand response energy, depending on the voltage curve profiles established by historical measurements. The proposal is based on the stochastic prediction of energetic demand using Monte Carlo algorithms with Markov Chains (MCMC), from the analysis of the voltage profile as a deterministic variable. The analysis is associated with the prediction of the maximum power required to satisfy the peak demand period in distribution systems with predominance of residential load, also seeking the planning of the networks to increase efficiency, quality and reliability of power supply in peak hours, in order to reduce the contingencies in the operation of distribution networks in periods of peak demand, especially in systems where the residential load is predominant, which has been taking considerable growth, due to the insertion of electric cookers.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2016 51st International Universities Power Engineering Conference, UPEC 2016
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages1-6
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781509046508
DOIs
StatePublished - 2 Jul 2016
Externally publishedYes
Event51st International Universities Power Engineering Conference, UPEC 2016 - Coimbra, Portugal
Duration: 6 Sep 20169 Sep 2016

Publication series

NameProceedings - 2016 51st International Universities Power Engineering Conference, UPEC 2016
Volume2017-January

Conference

Conference51st International Universities Power Engineering Conference, UPEC 2016
Country/TerritoryPortugal
CityCoimbra
Period6/09/169/09/16

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 IEEE.

Keywords

  • Demand Response
  • Distribution systems
  • Markov Chains
  • Monte Carlo
  • Stochastic Analysis
  • Voltage Profile

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