Disagreement in inflation expectations: empirical evidence for Colombia

Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro, Juan Camilo Anzoátegui Zapata

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    8 Scopus citations


    The literature on expectation disagreements in emerging economies is scarce. This paper examines the disagreements in inflation expectations for the Colombian economy during the 2010–2017 period. We combine empirical tests with an analysis of a monthly survey of expectations of financial analysts in Colombia to obtain valuable evidence to formulate guidelines on the expectations modelling in developing economies. The findings indicate that disagreements present inertia and that inflation volatility increases disagreements. However, the central bank’s stance, as established through a press release, can reduce disagreement. Moreover, if central bank communication is clear and there is a credible inflation target, there tend to be fewer disagreements.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)4411-4424
    Number of pages14
    JournalApplied Economics
    Issue number40
    StatePublished - 27 Aug 2019

    Bibliographical note

    Publisher Copyright:
    © 2019, © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.


    • Disagreements
    • clarity
    • communication
    • inflation expectations

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