Foresight study to 2035 of the citrus agroindustrial chain. Alignment of scenarios, Delphi method and complement with python libraries

Purpose – Citriculture is crucial for its economic and social impact, offering export and job creation potential. The purpose of this paper is to present a prospective study aimed at enhancing strategic planning, prioritizing technologies and innovations and minimizing decision-making uncertainties within the citrus chain’s innovation system. Design/methodology/approach – Two methodologies were used: scenario analysis and the two-round Delphi method, to identify key variables, create future scenarios and prioritize technology and innovation issues for the citrus chain by 2035. Findings – Scenario analysis assessed 36 variables using MICMAC, identifying 11 key variables. Based on these, five hypotheses were formulated to define the betting scenario through MACTOR software. The Delphi method involved expert evaluations of 140 topics, leading to the prioritization of 71 topics and technologies, including Industry 4.0, climate change, gene editing, digital imaging and IoT applications. Achieving future objectives and developing these topics necessitate strategies fostering integration and alliances among chain actors. Research limitations/implications – The scenario methodology establishes key variables that can change over time. Therefore, it is advisable to continuously review the inclusion of new aspects such as changes in macroeconomic variables, new regulations promoting or governing certain technologies or new environmental considerations. This may necessitate adjusting or refining the proposed scenario. The Delphi method was conducted using a specific number of technologies obtained from previous monitoring and intelligence studies. These technologies may change or need to be supplemented with new priorities in the regions where the sector is part of prioritized agro-industrial chains. Furthermore, it is essential to align with the public policy of each country or region so that the proposed strategies and new projects take these policies into account. This study only went so far as to propose key variables, future objectives, prioritization of stakeholders, a strategic scenario and a list of topics, technologies and innovations that served as input for open innovation challenges and innovation management models. However, further dissemination to all stakeholders in the sector is crucial, as is the concrete formulation of projects for specific calls for proposals from ministries of science, technology and innovation, agriculture, the General Royalties System and other external funding opportunities. Practical implications – Academics and researchers will find input for their lines of research, projects, new extension courses, micro-credentials and minors related to priority topics, technologies and innovations. These items will also be a source for new in-depth studies in scientific and technological monitoring. Entrepreneurs, associations, processors and producers will have a valuable platform to establish their strategies and new projects, highlighting future objectives and their potential alignment as an organization. Delphi’s technologies and innovations can now be especially useful in formulating innovation challenges on open innovation platforms or in specific calls for solvers and seekers. At the regional level, the science, technology and innovation system can be revitalized by the clear focus on long-term objectives and high-impact projects that bring together various stakeholders under N-helix models; these models will impact not only the university-industry-government triad but also stakeholders related to societal participation and aspects of sustainability, circular economy and regeneration. Originality/value – The novelty of this study is the validation through artificial intelligence and natural language processing. Emphasis is placed on implementing strategies to achieve the objectives, realize the future scenario and address priority issues by 2035.